Left isn't right

IIPM Prof Arindam Chaudhuri on Our Parliament and Parliamentarians' Work

Its 'secular tactics' may not save LDF from an imminent electoral rout. The 'tactical policies' it adopted in the last elections will return to haunt the front, writes K. Sunilkumar

Left parties, especially Communist Party of India (Marxist), always flaunt their 'secular' credentials. In every election in Kerala, the main leftist propaganda is that they never dilute their anti-communal stance.

But the people of Kerala cannot forget the image of Abdul Nasar Madani, chairman of People's Democratic Party (PDP), sharing the Left Democratic Front (LDF) campaign platform in Ponnani with CPI(M) state secretary Pinarayi Vijayan. It was a joint 'secular' campaign for Dr. Hussain Randathani, the Independent candidate of the LDF in the last Lok Sabha election. Madani was imprisoned for eight years in connection with the Coimbatore blast that occurred on February 14, 1998. He is now listed as the 31st accused in the Bangalore blast case. Madani's party whole-heartedly supported LDF in the election and campaigned for the victory of Left candidates. But Madani was not alone in his support for the comrades. Indian National League (INL), which broke away from Indian Union Muslim League, has had an informal alliance with LDF for 14 years. Jamaat-e-Islami, the Muslim 'fundamentalist' organisation (as portrayed by the CPM leaders) also supported the left 'secularists'.

Moreover, the Sunni Muslim organisation led by Kanthapuram A.P. Aboobacker Musliar, an orthodox leader who publicly opposes the entry of women into politics and even education for Muslim girls, clandestinely helped the leftists in Kerala. This 'secular circus' was played out with an eye on a possible victory in some Lok Sabha seats in Malabar area.

Kerala Congress (J), led by P. J. Joseph, infamous in a case of molestation on board an aircraft, represented the Christian sections in the state. Unfortunately, voters sabotaged these calculations. LDF could win only three of the 20 Lok Sabha seats. Within the next six months, in byelections to three Assembly seats, voters rejected LDF's 'secular agenda' yet again. These electoral setbacks and pressures from in and outside the CPM forced the party to alter its election tactics and strategies. Factional fights in the party and the departure of allies from the Front have severely trimmed the LDF. The Janata Dal (S) led by M.P. Veerendra Kumar, a theoretician of anti-globalisation politics, broke away from the alliance thanks to differences with the CPM leadership during the Lok Sabha elections. The party has now joined the United Democratic Front (UDF), which favours globalisation.

A few days ago, Kerala Congress (Joseph) walked out of LDF and merged with Kerala Congress (Mani), led by K. M. Mani, a senior political leader in Kerala. KC (M) is a UDF constituent. INL has also snapped its ties with LDF and is now in negotiations for return to the mother organisation, IUML, the second largest party in UDF. Following the Central leadership's inference that the alliance with Madani had damaged the party's image in the LS polls, CPM has been showing disenchantment with it.

After police action during an agitation against mass eviction for a four-lane road to Kinaloor (Kozhikode) organised by Solidarity (youth organisation of Jamaat-e-Islami) and political parleys with Muslim League leaders, the Jamaat has turned into a 'class enemy' for the Marxists. Now CPM and LDF are trying to make new allies to cover the losses and improve their prospects in the coming elections. Two crucial polls are ahead for the Kerala CPM and LDF in the next 11 months.

As Muslim and Christian minority parties shun the comrades, the latter have begun to move in the opposite direction and are wooing Hindu votes. CPM has already started its new strategic shift to woo some major communities in the Hindu fold. The party leadership has started a blame game against minority organisations and are molly-coddling Hindu outfits like NSS and SNDP.

An indication of this shift is evident from statements and writings of top leaders of the party. The first shot was fired by from Pinarayi Vijayan through his categorical allegation that Christian bishops were responsible for scuttling the merger of Kerala Congress factions. And V. S. Achuthanandan, chief minister of Kerala, jumped to the conclusion that 'Muslim and Christian communalism is on the rise in the state.' He accused the Congress of backing such communal elements.

Congress and UDF leaders have alleged that Achuthanandan and CPM are trying to play the Hindu card for the next election. K.M. Mani, leader of Kerala Congress, has questioned the CM's statement on legal grounds because 'it is against certain communities.' Senior Congress leader and Union overseas Indian affairs minister Vayalar Ravi, too, alleged that the CM's statement blaming the Congress for the growth of Muslim and Christian communalism was "a political ploy to appease the majority community and the RSS'.

After the CPM politburo issued a clarification in this regard, the party's stand vis-a-vis this new strategy was finally out in the open.

'The politburo noted that various communal and caste forces are being mobilised against the LDF government. These forces are sought to be consolidated behind the Congress-led UDF. The increasing intervention of religious and communal bodies in politics does not augur well for the secular polity in Kerala,' said the politburo statement issued after its meeting held in Delhi on June 5 and 6.

According to some political observers, the shift in the CPM stand is a move to make new alliances or whip up Hindu sentiments against the minorities. 'In the last two decades, CPM has tried to woo minorities in the state. They succeeded to some extent. But after the last Lok Sabha elections proved that it cannot derive any gains from the minorities, the party began to woo Hindus,' says B.R.P. Bhaskar.

He also argues that the CPM in Kerala is a party that is dominated by Hindu members. 'The minority population in the state is 44 per cent, but only 20 per cent of CPM's membership is made up of people belonging to the minority communities,' Bhaskar explains.

The Sangh Parivar, especially BJP, which has been trying to make headway in Kerala politics, have also come out strongly against at the new 'duplicitous' strategy of the CPM. 'Christian and Muslim fanatics who stood with CPM for a while ditched them at a time when they were needed the most. All of a sudden, the leftist forces are now desperately trying to project themselves as the sole secular face in a bid to win back the trust of the Hindu voter,' Haindava Keralam, a pro-Hindu website, recently wrote.

However, political observers in the state believe that the new 'secular tactics' may not save LDF from an imminent electroal rout. The 'tactical policies' that it adopted in the last elections are still quite fresh in the minds of the people and these memories are likely to return to haunt the Kerala Marxists and their allies in an election that, like the recent municipal polls in West Bengal, will be a litmus test.

An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Economy: Is us facing great depression

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American families are about to lose unemployment benefits, health insurance, or both

Paul Krugman Economist and NYT Columnist

What's the greatest threat to our still-fragile economic recovery? Dangers abound, of course. But what I currently find most ominous is the spread of a destructive idea: The view that now, less than a year into a weak recovery from the worst slump since World War II, is the time for policymakers to stop helping the jobless and start inflicting pain.

When the financial crisis first struck, most of the world's policymakers responded appropriately, cutting interest rates and allowing deficits to rise. And by doing the right thing, by applying the lessons learned from the 1930s, they managed to limit the damage: It was terrible, but it wasn't a second Great Depression.

Now, however, demands that governments switch from supporting their economies to punishing them have been proliferating in op-eds, speeches and reports from international organisations. Indeed, the idea that what depressed economies really need is even more suffering seems to be the new conventional wisdom, which John Kenneth Galbraith famously defined as 'the ideas which are esteemed at any time for their acceptability.'

The extent to which inflicting economic pain has become the accepted thing was driven home to me by the latest report on the economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, an influential Paris-based think tank supported by the governments of the world's advanced economies. The OECD is a deeply cautious organisation; what it says at any given time virtually defines that moment's conventional wisdom. And what the OECD is saying right now is that policymakers should stop promoting economic recovery and instead begin raising interest rates and slashing spending.

What's particularly remarkable about this recommendation is that it seems disconnected not only from the real needs of the world economy, but from the organisation's own economic projections. Thus, the OECD declares that interest rates in the United States and other nations should rise sharply over the next year and a half, so as to head off inflation. Yet inflation is low and declining, and the OECD's own forecasts show no hint of an inflationary threat. So why raise rates? The answer, as best I can make it out, is that the organisation believes that we must worry about the chance that markets might start expecting inflation, even though they shouldn't and currently don't: We must guard against 'the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored in the OECD economies, contrary to what is assumed in the central projection.'

A similar argument is used to justify fiscal austerity. Both textbook economics and experience say that slashing spending when you're still suffering from high unemployment is a really bad idea ' not only does it deepen the slump, but it does little to improve the budget outlook, because much of what governments save by spending less they lose as a weaker economy depresses tax receipts. And the OECD predicts that high unemployment will persist for years. Nonetheless, the organisation demands both that governments cancel any further plans for economic stimulus and that they begin 'fiscal consolidation' next year.

Why do this? Again, to give markets something they shouldn't want and currently don't. Right now, investors don't seem at all worried about the solvency of the U.S. government; the interest rates on federal bonds are near historic lows. And even if markets were worried about U.S. fiscal prospects, spending cuts in the face of a depressed economy would do little to improve those prospects. But cut we must, says the OECD, because inadequate consolidation efforts 'would risk adverse reactions in financial markets.'

The best summary I've seen of all this comes from Martin Wolf of The Financial Times, who describes the new conventional wisdom as being that 'giving the markets what we think they may want in future ' even though they show little sign of insisting on it now ' should be the ruling idea in policy.' Put that way, it sounds crazy. Yet it's a view that's spreading. And it's already having ugly consequences. Last week conservative members of the House, invoking the new deficit fears, scaled back a bill extending aid to the long-term unemployed ' and the Senate left town without acting on even the inadequate measures that remained. As a result, many American families are about to lose unemployment benefits, health insurance, or both ' and as these families are forced to slash spending, they will endanger the jobs of many more. And that's just the beginning. Even conventional wisdom says that the responsible thing is to make the unemployed suffer. And while the benefits from inflicting pain are an illusion, the pain itself will be too real.


An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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